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Weather experts predicted a very early and active hurricane season for 2013. The hurricane season lasts for six months and starts on the first day of June. Experts said the chance of having up to 20 storms during those months was about 70 percent. Of these storms, they predicted that up to 11 could become hurricanes, which means the wind gusts would be higher than 74 mph. They also predicted that as many as six of these storms could be major hurricanes. To be considered a major hurricane, a storm must have wind gusts higher than 111 mph. The seasonal average at the time of their prediction was three major hurricanes, six hurricanes and 12 storms.
After several devastating hurricanes hitting the United States during the past decade, many people become increasingly nervous when hurricane season arrives each year. Experts are committed to forecasting these storms as soon as possible to save more lives and minimize damages. It is important for concerned citizens to remember that tropical storms and hurricanes are not exclusive to the coastal areas. As these storms move inland, they bring heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds and even tornadoes with them.
There are three climate factors affecting how hurricanes form in the Atlantic. These include the following:
– Water temperatures that are warmer than average in the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.
– Continual atmospheric climate patterns that are part of African monsoons.
– No expected development of El Niño to suppress the formation of hurricanes.
Experts say oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the basin of the Atlantic will create stronger hurricanes in larger numbers. These include wind patterns from Africa, warmer water in the Atlantic Ocean and weaker wind shear. Experts are working on ways to improve their storm tracking abilities.
One of the new developments introduced in early 2013 was an improved forecast model. The National Hurricane Center’s communicating procedures and data gathering techniques were also improved. Experts have plans to add a supercomputer that is capable of running upgraded research to depict the structures of storms and forecast their intensity more precisely.
Additional improvements include a Doppler radar that will provide real-time transmissions to aircraft. This will make it easier for forecasters to analyze storms that are moving or developing rapidly. It will help them improve their model forecasts by up to 15 percent. The National Weather Service also made some changes to keep warnings in effect or to be reissued for stronger storms that are changing. The flexibility allows them to provide a continuous stream of warning information to the public.